India’s greenhouse gases emission increase by 40 percent 2030, despite polices intervention: IMF


New Delhi: International Monetary Funds (IMF) has raised some apprehensions over current India’s green policies which are striving towards meeting its emission targets and said that Green House Gases emissions will increase by more than 40 percent in 2030.

In its latest observation, IMF said, “India has made significant progress towards meeting its emissions reductions targets under the Paris Agreement, but with current policies total GHG emissions would nonetheless increase by more than 40 percent by 2030”.

The agency however added that “While a modest increase in short-term emissions may be necessary to meet poverty reduction”… adding that energy security goals, a more rapid scaling up of current policies could help lower emissions considerably over the medium-term and bring India closer to a path to net zero by 2070”.

At the COP26 meeting in Glasgow in November 2021 , Prime Minister Modi pledged net-zero emissions by 2070 and demanded that developed countries deliver $1 trillion in climate finance.

With more than 17% of the global population, has contributed only about 4% to the global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2019 against the 60% contributed by developed nations.

IMF said an alternative emissions trajectory could be achieved by scaling up current policies, which include a gradual increase in subsidies on the use of renewable energy coupled with higher taxes on emissions.

“This would have the added benefit of early reduction in the reliance on imported fuels, helping to ensure universal access to energy, and of lessening the negative health effects from pollution,” it said.

The IMF also said the external climate financing and technology transfer would help mitigate costs and ensure sustainability.

Courtesy: IMF

Over subsidies and tariffs in the coal sector, the IMF said ” combining renewable subsidies and higher tariffs on coal would result in nearly one-third lower emissions by 2030 compared to current policies”

It said, “In this scenario, growing energy demand is met through a gradual increase of renewable energy and by allowing coal power to taper off, thus exceeding the goal of 50 percent non-fossil fuel electricity capacity.
“Under such a policy, not only would the share of renewables rise significantly but overall electricity supply would increase,” said the IMF.

“While this policy has clear environmental benefits, we estimate that the policy will result in a modest reduction in the level of real gross domestic product as firms and consumers pay higher taxes.

However, enough fiscal revenues would be raised to compensate the poorest citizen to such an extent that the policy would be progressive overall” it said.

India had also set the target to achieve its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts (GW), fulfil 50 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable sources, reduce its carbon intensity of the economy by 45 per cent, and reduce total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes.

Even today, India’s per capita emissions are less than one-third of world’s per capita GHG Emissions. Globally India stands 4th in terms of installed renewable energy capacity, 4th in terms of wind installed capacity, 5th in terms of solar installed capacity.

In just the last 9 years, the installed capacity of solar energy in India has increased by more than 23 time, whereas the installed renewable energy capacity has increased 396% in the last 8 years.


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