New Delhi: The conditions are turning favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands around May 16, 2026, even as large parts of northwest, west and central India are expected to reel under prolonged heat wave to severe heat wave conditions during the coming week.
According to the latest weather outlook, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over northeast India between May 13 and 19, while southern states including Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka are also expected to witness intense rain activity accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds.
In northwest India, scattered to fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the week. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan may also experience isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds reaching up to 60 kmph.
Northeast India is likely to remain under active rainfall conditions with thunderstorms and strong winds across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Very heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya on selected days during the week, raising concerns over localised flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas.
Eastern India is also expected to witness unstable weather conditions. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are likely to receive widespread rainfall with isolated heavy showers throughout the week.
Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal may witness thunderstorms, lightning and squally winds, with thundersquall activity reaching wind speeds of up to 70 kmph in some areas.
In central India, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh are expected to receive isolated rain and thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds.
South Peninsular India is likely to remain under an active wet spell. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep are expected to witness widespread thunderstorms and rainfall during May 13–17.
Heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka, while hailstorm activity is also possible in parts of Karnataka on May 15.
Meanwhile, temperatures are forecast to rise sharply across northwest India, with maximum temperatures likely to increase by 4–6 degrees Celsius between May 13 and 19. Central and eastern India may also witness a gradual temperature rise of 2–4 degrees Celsius during the same period.
Meteorologists said the contrasting weather pattern, advancing monsoon conditions over the Bay of Bengal alongside intense heat over northern India, reflects the seasonal transition currently underway across the country.
