El Nino not likely to affect Indian monsoon, rainfall to remain normal in second half: IMD


New Delhi: The rainfall during the second half of this year’s monsoon (August -September) is likely to be normal as per India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Releasing its rainfall outlook for second half of the monsoon, IMD has said, ” the rainfall in August-September was likely to be normal from 94 percent to 106 percent of long period average (LPA) – but in the lower end of the range”

It however, added that in August, the countrywide rainfall is expected to be below-normal at around 92 percent of LPA. In other words, the rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season is likely to be less than 100 per cent. July unexpectedly produced 13 per cent above normal rainfall, with many parts of the country receiving good rainfall.

“The LPA of the August rainfall over the country as a whole based on data of 1971-2020 is 254.9 mm” said IMD.

“During August the rainfall is very likely ‘normal to above normal’ in many parts of east central India, and some parts of east and northeast India where the rain deficit is high” the report said.

The forecast also indicates that rainfall is likely to remain below-normal in south India, and central India, including regions in Maharashtra. For Delhi -NCR, the forecast suggested that rain could to be normal to below-normal in the two months.

Over the rainfall activity for the last month the IMD said, July ended with 13 percent above normal rainfall in the country, while the overall monsoon performance in the season stood at 5 percent above normal.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the latest extended range forecast also indicated reduced rainfall activity over central and peninsular India starting from August 5 till August 17, a period when monsoon rain could be deficient. “After that period, rainfall could improve for different parts of the country,” he added.

El Nino and Monsoon:

The development of El Nino conditions in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean is expected to begin having an impact on the Indian monsoon.

In general, El Nino tends to suppress monsoon rainfall over India. “Currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.

The latest climate models indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to intensify further and continue up to early next year,” IMD said.

In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also influence on Indian monsoon.

At present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate model forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during remaining part of the monsoon season.

Temperatures Forecast during:

The maximum temperature is likely to remain “above normal” for August over most parts of south Peninsula, east and northeast India, and many areas of western side of northwest and central India.

“Some areas of north peninsular India, east central India and some parts of Gangetic plains, will witness the temperature of normal to below” IMD said.

Whereas the minimum temperatures are likely to remain “above normal” over most parts of the country except some parts of the northernmost India where “below normal” minimum temperatures are likely.


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