New Delhi: There is a 60 percent chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, which would likely to fuel higher global temperatures and will impacts the “weather and climate patterns”, as per World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
This will increase to about 70 per cent in June-August and 80 per cent between July and September.
The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).
“At this stage there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño” it said.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes usually last nine to 12 months.
El Niño events are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
“We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
He said that the development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records,”
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
From February 2023 onwards, there has been a significant increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, with notably stronger warming along the coast of South America.
As of mid-April 2023, the sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.
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