New Delhi / Nairobi: The world is heading toward a deeply unstable and unequal future unless humanity takes dramatic and immediate action to curb escalating environmental crises, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned in its latest flagship assessment, the Global Environment Outlook–7 (GEO-7).
The seventh edition of the report presents a stark picture of what the planet could look like by mid-century if governments continue on the current path of unchecked pollution, rising greenhouse gas emissions, and widespread destruction of nature. However, UNEP stresses that the most catastrophic outcomes can still be avoided if countries act decisively and collectively.
“With a whole-of-government, whole-of-society effort humanity can still turn the ship around,” said Maarten Kappelle, Chief of Service in UNEP’s Office of Science. “But if countries continue to drag their collective feet, billions of people will face an uncertain future, especially those in the developing world.”
Prepared by nearly 300 scientists, GEO-7 models a “business-as-usual” scenario for 2050, projecting severe consequences across climate, ecosystems, health and the global economy.
Under this trajectory, planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise to 75 billion tonnes per year by 2050, nearly 50 per cent higher than today’s levels. The resulting climate destabilisation would drive an explosion in extreme heat, with heatwaves affecting almost everyone on Earth, around 9.2 billion people by 2050.
At the same time, humanity’s appetite for resources is set to intensify. By 2050, humans are projected to extract 165 billion tonnes of raw materials annually, a more than 60 per cent increase from 2020. The report warns that mining and extraction of metals, minerals and fossil fuels will destroy vast natural areas, further accelerating climate change and biodiversity loss.
Economic and social fallout:-The economic costs of environmental inaction are expected to be enormous. Climate change alone could shave 4 per cent off global GDP each year by 2050, rising to a staggering 20 per cent by 2100 if warming continues unchecked. UNEP compares this scale of economic contraction to the devastation experienced during the Great Depression in the United States.
These impacts will not be evenly distributed. Pollution, ecosystem collapse and climate extremes will hit the poorest communities hardest, widening the gap between rich and poor both within and between countries.
While GEO-7 projects a slight decline in average air pollution levels by 2050, rapid urbanisation means more people will be exposed to harmful air. By mid-century, 4.2 billion people are expected to regularly inhale dangerous levels of fine particulate matter known as PM2.5. Air-pollution-related deaths could cost the global economy US$18–25 trillion by 2060, the report estimates.
Nature loss and food insecurity:-The report also warns of a massive loss of ecosystems. By 2050, the world could lose 1 million square kilometres of forests, peatlands and other natural spaces, largely driven by the expansion of cropland to feed a growing population with increasing meat consumption. As ecosystems shrink, the planet’s mean species abundance, a key indicator of biodiversity is projected to decline by 3 per cent.
Climate change will further intensify humanitarian risks. By 2050, unchecked warming could expose 1.1 billion more people to heavy rainfall and 900 million additional people to severe drought. These extremes could push up to 132 million people into poverty and place 24 million more at risk of hunger by 2040. Water scarcity will worsen dramatically, with 3.3 billion people—one third of the global population—facing water stress by 2050.
Approaching irreversible thresholds:-GEO-7 cautions that the planet is nearing dangerous climate tipping points. The collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could trigger up to 10 metres of sea-level rise. Thawing permafrost may release vast quantities of methane, accelerating global warming. The Amazon rainforest could degrade into savannah, undermining one of Earth’s most critical carbon sinks. Nearly all warm-water coral reefs could vanish, devastating marine ecosystems and global fisheries.
Even major ocean currents and the Jet Stream could be disrupted, throwing the global climate system into chaos. Despite its grim projections, GEO-7 emphasises that the future is not yet sealed. UNEP says there is still time to avert the worst impacts—but only if countries pursue urgent and unprecedented changes in governance, energy systems, food production, material use, waste management and environmental protection.
