World must cut greenhouse gas emissions 69% by 2040 to return to 1.5°C pathway:UNEP

‘Overshoot is not surrender’: UN report says current climate pledges fall far short of what is needed to limit warming and restore the global temperature goal by 2100

Nairobi: The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18 percent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, to minimise global warming beyond 1.5°C and bring temperatures back to that threshold by the end of the century, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return warns that the opportunity to prevent global temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels has effectively passed. The immediate priority, it says, must be to limit the scale and duration of this overshoot and pursue a pathway that could return warming to or below 1.5°C by 2100.

The report examines a “lowest possible” overshoot scenario in which global warming peaks at approximately 1.7–1.8°C around the middle of the century before declining. Even under this pathway, the probability of returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100 is only about 50%.

The findings highlight the growing gap between the scale of emissions reductions required by climate science and the action promised by governments under the Paris Agreement.

Existing climate pledges fall far short

According to UNEP, the full implementation of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—their national climate action plans under the Paris Agreement—would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.

These reductions remain substantially below the 18% cut required by 2030 and the 45% cut needed by 2035 under the report’s proposed pathway.

The assessment implies that global emissions must decline at an average annual rate of approximately 5.7% between 2025 and 2035. This is faster than the roughly 5% annual reduction rate associated with pathways assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report.

The gap is not simply a question of setting more ambitious targets. It also raises concerns about whether existing policies, investments and national implementation plans can deliver reductions at the speed and scale required.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world could still limit the extent and duration of temperature overshoot.

“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” Guterres said in a message accompanying the report.

He reiterated the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 compared with 2025 levels.

Renewable energy offers a pathway to faster cuts

Despite the widening emissions gap, UNEP identifies significant opportunities to accelerate climate action. Renewable energy has expanded rapidly since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, while the growth in total energy supply from coal and oil has been slower than previously projected. Climate policies have also delivered emissions reductions in several countries and sectors.

These developments demonstrate that emissions can be reduced through technological change and effective public policy. However, the report stresses that existing progress must be expanded substantially to bring global emissions onto a pathway consistent with the temperature goal.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree of warming, and every additional year spent above 1.5°C, would increase climate-related risks.

“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is possible.

“We have a wealth of success stories showing that emissions can be cut quickly. It is now up to nations to urgently put in place policies that spark fast, deep and sustained emissions reductions, and put the world on track for a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies.”

Returning to 1.5°C will require more than emissions cuts

The report’s proposed pathway involves not only steep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but also increasing the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere throughout the century.

This is a critical qualification. Once temperatures overshoot 1.5°C, bringing them back down would require the world to remove substantial quantities of carbon dioxide in addition to cutting emissions at their source. The scale, feasibility and long-term sustainability of such removals remain important challenges.

The scenario therefore should not be interpreted as evidence that exceeding 1.5°C would be harmless or that the temperature threshold can be restored automatically through future technology. Limiting peak warming remains essential because climate impacts intensify with every additional increment of warming.

The accountability gap in global climate action

The report presents a central contradiction in international climate policy: clean-energy technologies and emissions-reduction measures are advancing, but collective national commitments remain inadequate for the required trajectory.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, established the goal of holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Nearly a decade later, UNEP’s assessment suggests that achieving the more ambitious temperature goal will require a scale of action substantially beyond current national pledges.

The difference between the emissions reductions required and those promised by governments also raises questions about implementation, fossil fuel dependence, investment priorities and the pace of the global energy transition.

For governments, the immediate challenge is to convert long-term climate commitments into concrete measures that reduce emissions across energy, industry, transport and other major sectors. For international climate cooperation, the challenge is to ensure that national plans collectively reflect the scale of reductions required.

UNEP’s message is that the 1.5°C threshold should not be treated as a reason to abandon climate action. Even if temporary overshoot becomes unavoidable, limiting its magnitude and duration can reduce future risks.

The remaining pathway, however, is narrow and demanding. The difference between announced commitments and actual emissions reductions will determine how high global temperatures rise, how long they remain elevated and whether the world can return to the 1.5°C level by the end of the century.

Source: United Nations Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return. Read the report.