India braces for below-normal monsoon as El Niño threat looms

New Delhi, April 14: India could see a below-normal southwest monsoon this year due to El Nino, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned in its April forecast—its first such alert in over a decade, raising concerns for agriculture and water security.

Addressing a press briefing on Monday, M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the country is likely to receive rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm during the June–September monsoon season.

“India is likely to receive only 92% of the Long Period Average rainfall this monsoon,” Ravichandran said.

The IMD attributed the subdued outlook to the expected influence of El Niño, which is typically associated with weaker monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent.

“The developing El Niño conditions are expected to have an impact on the southwest monsoon this year,” he added.

The forecast brings back memories of past shortfall years. In 2023, the IMD had projected “near normal” rainfall at 96% of the LPA, but several regions still recorded deficient precipitation.

In 2015, a “below normal” forecast of 93% turned out to be an underestimate, with actual rainfall slipping to 86%—one of India’s worst drought years.

M. Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, said the main reason for this year’s below-normal monsoon warning is the likely development of an El Nino , a periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific, which in the 16 years it has emerged since 1950, had depressed India’s monsoon rainfall nine times. With disruptions of fertilizer supply ahead of the Kharif season anticipated in the wake of the West Asia war, insufficient rain could impact farming in the country, which is significantly rainfed.

At present, “weak” La Niña-like conditions – the converse of an El Nino, are transitioning to neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. The effects of the El Nino are only likely to come into full effect in the second half of the monsoon, during the months of August and September.

Mr. Mohapatra said that despite the links between an El Nino and weak monsoon, two factors could blunt its impact. The first is the so called ‘positive’ IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), a condition that is likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season.

The second is that the extent of northern hemisphere snow cover from January to March 2026 has been slightly below normal.

The dipole refers to oscillations of sea-surface temperatures between the western (near Africa) and eastern (near Indonesia) tropical Indian Ocean. A “positive” dipole and reduced snow cover generally tend to bring more rain to India and can offset El Nino’s “negative” impact, Mr Mohapatra said.

Experts warn that a weaker monsoon could have cascading effects across sectors. “A below-normal monsoon can affect crop output, rural incomes, and water availability, especially in rain-fed regions,” officials noted.

Nearly half of India’s agricultural land depends on monsoon rainfall, making the seasonal outlook critical for food production and price stability. The IMD said it will continue to monitor evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions and update its forecast closer to the onset of the monsoon.