Southwest monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala on May 31

New Delhi: The Southwest Monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to arrive on May 31, kicking off a four-month rainy India’s agriculture-dependent economy said the India Meteorological Department.

There will be a margin of error of four days, this arrival date falls close to the historical average, according to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

Presently, the southwest monsoon is expected to advance over the South Andaman Sea and some parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal and the Nicobar Islands around Sunday, May 19.

This year, the Met department has forecast ‘above’ normal rainfall over the country during the upcoming season. Quantitatively, it is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (880mm as per 1971 – 2020 data).

June and July are the most critical months for agriculture during the monsoon season as most Kharif crops, like rice and pulses, are sown during this period.

While El Niño, a weather pattern associated with weaker monsoons, is currently in effect, scientists predict a shift to La Niña by August-September. La Nina’s cooler Pacific waters typically bring about plentiful monsoon rainfall.

The IMD also anticipates a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to develop by August. A positive IOD translates to cooler waters in the eastern Indian Ocean compared to the west, which historically contributes to increased rainfall in South India.

Heatwave Predictions:-
The weather agency has predicted heatwave conditions over northwest India till May 18 including Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and others.

The gradual rise of temperature by about 3-5 degrees Celsius in maximum temperatures is very likely over many parts of Northwest and East India during the next five days.

Severe heatwave conditions are expected in isolated areas of West Rajasthan from May 17 to 19, in Punjab and South Haryana on May 18 and 19, and in the eastern parts of Rajasthan on May 19.

Isolated pockets of heatwave conditions are likely over the Gujarat Region from May 16 to May 17, over Konkan on May 16, over Saurashtra and Kutch on May 16 and May 17, and over Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and Odisha on May 18 and May 19.