US, EU and UK are responsible for 39 percent of cumulative historical emissions: Report

New Delhi: A new study has revealed that US, EU and UK are responsible for 39 percent of cumulative historical emissions and current CO2-related warming.

The new analysis led by UK based think tank ‘Carbon Brief’ found that the share of the carbon emissions by US (21%) and China (12%), while together, the EU+UK’s responsibility for warming rises by nearly a third, to 19%.

On this per-capita measure, China (217tCO2 per person), the continent of Africa (92tCO2) and India (52tCO2) are far behind developed nations’ contributions to warming.

The report said as a group, the EU+UK collectively ranks second for emissions within its own borders (375GtCO2, 14.7% of the global total).

This climbs by nearly a third after adding colonial emissions, to 478GtCO2 and 18.7% of the global total – just behind the US.

The UK’s contribution to climate change nearly doubles when accounting for emissions under colonial rule, jumping from 8th to 4th in global ranking of cumulative historical CO2 since 1850.

The UK ranks fourth in the world when accounting for colonial emissions – jumping ahead of its former colony India.

“India is among the former colonies seeing its share of historical responsibility fall (by 15%, to below the UK), with Indonesia down by 24% and Africa’s already small contribution also dropping 24%” it noted.

Including emissions under British rule in 46 former colonies, the UK is responsible for nearly twice as much global warming as previously thought (130GtCO2 and 5.1% of the total, instead of 76GtCO2 and 3.0%), as per the findings.

The largest contributions to the UK’s colonial emissions are from India (13GtCO2, cutting its own total by 15%), Myanmar (7GtCO2, -49%) and Nigeria (5GtCO2, -33%).

In the first decade covered by Carbon Brief’s analysis, land-related emissions including deforestation account for more than 90% of the CO2 being released each year.

This pattern is reversed in the present day, with fossil fuels and cement production accounting for an estimated 91% of global CO2 emissions in 2023, as shown in the figure below.

Annual global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement overtook land-related emissions for the first time in 1947 – coincidentally, the year that India and Pakistan gained independence.

Overall, fossil fuels and cement account for more than two-thirds of cumulative CO2, some 71% of the total emissions released during 1850-2023. Land use and forestry account for the other 29%.

The first-of-its-kind analysis offers a thought-provoking fresh perspective on questions of climate justice and historical responsibility, which lie at the heart of the global climate debate.

In total, humans have collectively pumped 2,558bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) into the atmosphere since 1850, enough to warm the planet by 1.15C above pre-industrial temperatures.

This means that, by the end of 2023, more than 92% of the carbon budget for 1.5C will have been used up – leaving less than five years remaining if current annual emissions continue.