New Delhi: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a “weak or break monsoon” in the second half, as the monsoon trough shifts northward in the next two to three days.
“Monsoon Trough is active and runs south of its normal position. It is likely to shift northwards gradually towards the north of its normal position during the next 2-3 days” IMD said.
In its latest warning, the IMD said, the hilly states, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, including parts of the Northeast will witness “heavy to very rainfall” in the next few days.
The IMD director general, M Mohapatra said, “With the shifting of the monsoon trough northward, we can expect subdued rainfall conditions in the plains particularly northwest India and peninsular India. We can also expect heavy rainfall activity over the Himalayan foothills including Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, north Bihar, and parts of northeast India.”
“We cannot say immediately when the trough will shift to the normal position because conditions are fluctuating” he added.
This year more than 300 people have died in rain-related incidents in Himachal Pradesh and nearly 100 hundreds in Uttarakhand.
Several weather experts have concluded that the ongoing EL Nino phenomenon., which is known to have a strong influence on the southwest monsoon in India, is primarily responsible for the current weather phenomenon.
Meanwhile, the first dry spell has already made itself felt in the overall numbers: monsoon rainfall to date is already 6% deficient, after ending July with a surplus of 5%.
As per IMD, All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this year’s monsoon Season Rainfall from 1 June to 16 Aug 2023 is -6%, and over northwest India, it is 10%, it was -3 %, central India, as -12 % while over south Peninsula, & northeast India had got -19%.
